The Ice Storm Ontario Isn't Ready For: What El Niño's Flip Side Means For Your Home
If you've been
waiting on this one, thank you. We promised you "Blog 7" next, and
then two other posts showed up in its place: The Real Power of Being
Flood-Ready (Oct 6) and Infiltration & Inflow Flooding in Toronto: A Silent
Siege (Oct 9).
Here's the honest
version: we lost track of the series, and that's on us. But those two posts
turned out to be the perfect warm-up. The first showed you that being
flood-ready takes less than you think. The second showed you how groundwater
and stormwater quietly sneak into our systems. Today's post puts them together
and adds the one ingredient most Toronto homeowners forget about: ice.
This one was worth
the wait. Let's get into it.
The forecast, in plain English
El Niño is here,
and it's a big one. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center put out an El Niño
advisory in August 2026, with better than a 90% chance of a very strong event
through this fall and winter.
For Ontario, that
usually means a milder winter overall, and for southern Ontario, outlooks point
to more freeze-thaw swings and mixed precipitation: snow turning to sleet or
rain, then back to deep cold.
Less snow sounds
like good news. But here's the catch most people miss: a winter that flips
between warm and cold is exactly the kind of winter that makes freezing rain.
Let's be straight
with you. Nobody can promise an ice storm this year, and we won't pretend to.
What we can say is that mixed winters raise the odds of freezing rain, and
Toronto has seen what that looks like.
Toronto has done
this before
On December 22, 2013, freezing rain coated the GTA . At the peak, more than 300,000 Toronto Hydro customers lost power, and for some homes the lights stayed off for more than a week. Toronto Hydro's CEO said the worst of the ice came through the central part of the city, along the 401 corridor, hitting Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough hardest. Those are the neighbourhoods we work in every day.
Now here's what
that has to do with your basement.
How an ice storm
finds your basement
Rain is loud and
obvious. Ice is sneaky. It doesn't flood your basement on day one. It sets up
the conditions, and then the flood arrives on day three, or the first warm
afternoon after.
1. No power
means no sump pump
Most sump pumps run
on household electricity. When the grid goes down, so does your pump. If a thaw
or rain arrives while the power is out, nothing is pushing the water out of
your pit.
A battery backup
helps, but know its limits. A typical battery backup is built to bridge hours,
not days. How long yours lasts depends on the battery's size and age and how
often the pump has to run. In a multi-day outage, that's a real gap.
2. The frozen
discharge line
Your sump pump
sends water outside through a pipe. In deep cold, that pipe, or the spot where
it comes out, can freeze solid. The pump keeps running, the water has nowhere
to go, and the pit fills up. A pump pushing against ice can burn itself out.
3. Frozen ground
and the thaw that follows
When the ground
freezes, it stops soaking up water. Then a warm, rainy spell arrives and all
that melt and rain runs across the frozen surface, straight toward your
foundation. This is exactly the "silent siege" we wrote about on
October 9, just with a frozen lid on it.
4. Burst pipes
with no heat
In a long outage,
an unheated house gets cold fast. Water lines in exterior walls, garages, crawl
spaces and unfinished basement corners can freeze and split. The break usually
shows itself when the water thaws, and it can put a lot of water into a basement
quickly.
5. Blocked
drainage points
Ice and packed snow
can block window wells, catch basins and the low spots in your yard that
normally carry water away. Meltwater then pools against your foundation instead
of draining off.
One serious safety note: generators
When the power goes
out for days, people reach for generators and barbecues. In the 2013 storm,
police in Ontario linked deaths to carbon monoxide poisoning, and Toronto saw a
spike in carbon monoxide calls. Please:
Never run a
generator in a garage, basement or anywhere attached to your home.
Never heat your
house with a barbecue or outdoor stove.
If you want a
generator to run your sump pump, have a licensed electrician set up a safe
connection. We got you there, if you need one.
Your 30-minute pre-ice checklist
You don't need to
be an expert. You need about half an hour and a free afternoon this fall,
before the ground freezes.
1 Test your sump
pump. Pour a bucket of water into the pit. It should switch on, empty the water
and shut off.
2 Check your battery
backup. Find out how old the battery is. If you don't know, it may be due for a
look.
3 Walk your discharge
pipe. Make sure it's clear, slopes away from the house, and ends well away from
the foundation, not at the wall.
4 Extend your
downspouts. Point them away from your foundation, not into a frozen pile at the
wall.
5 Clear your window
wells and nearby drains of leaves and debris before snow falls.
6 Find your main
water shutoff. Make sure everyone in the house knows where it is, and that it
turns.
7 Protect exposed
pipes. Insulate water lines in cold spots like garages and exterior walls.
8 Make a power plan.
Flashlights, a charged phone bank, and a plan for where you'd go if the outage
runs long.
9 Photograph your
basement now. Dated photos of your finished space and your equipment are useful
if you ever need to file a claim.
The one check
most people skip: what's inside your drain line
Everything above is
about the water you can see. But a lot of winter flooding starts underground,
in the line that carries your wastewater out to the city: roots pushing in,
sections that have sagged, buildup that's slowly narrowing the pipe. When the
load goes up, a weak line is the first thing to fail.
A camera inspection
shows you exactly what's happening in there, before the ground freezes and
before a storm tests it.
Know before the
ice
Homeowners who
prepare for rain are often the same ones who get caught off guard by ice. The
good news: ice preparation overlaps with everything we've covered in this
series. A working sump pump, a clear discharge, a backwater valve that's ready
to do its job, and a plan for when the power goes out.
At Wane Drain, we
assess, understand and protect. We'd rather walk your property in October than
meet you in January.
Until November 16:
Full drain line camera inspection, cleanout to city
$99 (regular price
$349). Use promo code DRN26 when you call or text.
Call or text:
416-356-7886 www.wanedrain.com
Offer valid until
November 16, 2026. Promo code DRN26 required.
Coming next
In our next post,
we'll look at what happens when the snow melts and the rain arrives on top of
frozen ground, and why spring can be the riskiest time of year for Toronto
basements. Mark it down, because this time we're not forgetting.
Sources
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ NOAA
Climate Prediction Center, El Niño advisory (August 2026) and seasonal outlook
coverage
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-ice-storm-timeline-from-the-lead-up-to-the-clean-up-1.2490400
Toronto Hydro and CBC reporting on the December 2013 ice storm (peak outages,
restoration time)
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/qa-toronto-hydro-ceo-explains-impact-of-ice-storm/article16083973/
The Globe and Mail, interview with Toronto Hydro CEO on the 2013 ice storm
https://apnews.com/general-news-beb65eba16dc4f97b39a1fde04dc29e3
Associated Press report on carbon monoxide deaths after the December 2013 storm
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